The selection committee will release its second College Football Playoff Rankings today. As expected, the Buckeyes will be far down the list again.
Ohio State fans can scream all they want about SEC bias in the polls, but the truth is the Buckeyes deserve to be ranked low right now. A pathetic loss to Virginia Tech and a schedule littered with cupcakes is not worthy of inclusion by the committee. They will earn respect when their accomplishments on the field justify it.
The journey to get back into the Top 10 begins on Saturday for the No. 16 Buckeyes as they head to East Lansing for an 8 p.m. prime-time game against No. 8 Michigan State. Beating the Spartans will get Ohio State back into the playoff mix, but they are still a long shot for making it because the one-loss teams from the SEC, Big 12 and Pac-12 have much stronger arguments to be selected over the Buckeyes.
Beyond the one-loss teams, Florida State is hurting Ohio State’s chances too, as the Seminoles are almost guaranteed a spot unless they completely collapse over the next few weeks. That leaves three spots to share among four power conferences and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes need considerable help to get back in the chase, but there is a path.
Here are three things that must happen for Ohio State to make it into the playoff:
An SEC West Team Must Win the SEC Championship and Auburn Must Lose Again
Florida’s surprising win over Georgia created significant implications for the playoff race. For instance, what will happen if Missouri wins the East Division and the SEC Championship? Seems unlikely at this point, but it is within the realm of possibility. Would the committee have the resolve to pick a two-loss Missouri team and deny a one-loss team like Auburn? Not likely.
Ohio State’s chances of making the playoff are better if Alabama wins the SEC Championship because it ensures that Mississippi State suffers at least one loss, while Auburn will have suffered two losses. Another option would be Mississippi State winning the title and Alabama beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Either way, the Buckeyes need Auburn to lose again, or it will be just like 2011 when Alabama finished with one loss, failed to win the SEC West and still made it to the BCS Championship Game.
Odds are slim that the committee would select two teams from the SEC if the second place team from the West has two losses. The chances are good if Mississippi State wins title and Auburn beats Alabama and finishes with just one loss.
Of course the committee could select a one-loss Bulldogs team over a one-loss Buckeyes team, but the pressure to avoid picking two teams from one conference is much easier to succumb to when it is Mississippi State rather than Auburn.
It is time for the Buckeyes to jump on the Crimson Tide’s bandwagon. They can create havoc in the SEC West and give Ohio State a real shot at making the playoff.
Chaos in the Big 12
Like the SEC West, there are so many knockout games remaining in the Big 12. Kansas State, TCU and Baylor are all in front of Ohio State in the polls, and OSU probably needs all three to lose again to have a reasonable shot at making the playoff.
There's no question that the Wildcats are in the playoff over the Buckeyes if they run the table. The good news for Ohio State is that Kansas State has the toughest road to winning the Big 12. They are undefeated in conference play, but still have to play at TCU, West Virginia and Baylor. The probability of another loss is high.
TCU’s path to the conference title is much easier. After its game against Kansas State this Saturday, the Horned Frogs wrap up with Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.
Baylor plays at Oklahoma this Saturday in Norman, which will be tough because the Sooners are trying to avoid a third loss. If the Bears win, they have Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on the schedule before the season-ending game at home against Kansas State on December 6. If both teams enter with just one loss, this becomes a playoff-elimination game.
Ohio State’s best chance will come from all three teams ending up with two losses. This probably means The Buckeyes need Kansas State to beat TCU, Oklahoma to beat Baylor and Baylor to beat Kansas State.
The wild-card scenario involves TCU winning the Big 12 and finishing with one loss. The committee might be inclined to pick Ohio State over TCU, even though the Big 12 is a better conference. It might not be fair, but the Buckeyes are more appealing than TCU. Plus, the Horned Frogs have zero opportunities to score points with the committee after this weekend because of the weakness of their remaining schedule. They will fall victim to out of sight, out of mind. If the Buckeyes beat the Spartans, they will have the Big Ten Championship game to make a final impression.
Still, the Buckeyes don’t want to rely on tradition and brand equity to be selected because that might not be enough when the committee is debating quality of wins and losses. The better situation will involve the Big 12 Champion finishing with two losses.
Notre Dame Must Lose Again
The Fighting Irish are ranked ahead of the Buckeyes right now and must lose another game for Ohio State to have any chance at making the playoff.
The good and the bad for Ohio State is that Notre Dame’s schedule is back-loaded with challenging games and opportunities to prove they deserve to be among the top four teams. They play at No. 14 Arizona State this Saturday. Next week they play Northwestern. Their last two games are at home against No. 25 Louisville and at USC on December 6. They could easily lose two or three of these games.
If the Fighting Irish win out, nine of their wins will be against Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 opponents. The only blemish would be a questionable loss on the road against the defending national champion. There is little doubt that the committee will choose Notre Dame over Ohio State if both teams finish with one loss. Its resume would be better and more deserving of a playoff bid.
Analysis
With six games pairing highly ranked teams on the schedule this Saturday, the rankings this week will be short-lived and basically meaningless. The committee’s options will become more transparent after the dust settles this weekend.
The Buckeyes can only control how they perform. Their first order of business is beating Michigan State. Nothing happens unless they win this game.
Ohio State has more at stake than getting back into the playoff hunt this week. The Buckeyes desperately need a win against the Spartans to restore the program’s reputation. Considering the talent on the roster and the sorry state of the Big Ten, another season without a Big Ten Championship would be shocking.
Great teams rise in these occasions. Before the Buckeyes can be considered a playoff team, they need to prove they can win critical games again. Doing it on the road, at night, against the defending Big Ten Champion is a good way to get the monkey of their backs.
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