Minnesota just lost a tough game to Ohio State but covered again; the Golden Gophers are now 5-2 against the spread over their last seven contests. They're also 4-1 ATS in their last five Big Ten road games. Nebraska, meanwhile, just got its butt kicked at Wisconsin, and is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six Big Ten home games. The Cornhuskers host the Gophers Saturday in Lincoln.
Point spread: Cornhuskers opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.7-33.4 Cornhuskers
Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers can cover the spread
The Gophers just lost at home to the Buckeyes, 31-24, but covered as 13-point home dogs. Minnesota trailed early, 14-0, but rallied to tie the score at 14-14. The Gophers then gave up the next 17 points to trail 31-14, but they scored twice to pull within 31-24 and had time on the clock before coming up empty on an onside kick.
Minnesota basically answered every Ohio State score, except one. Two weeks ago, the Gophers ran all over Iowa in a 51-14 blowout victory. Minnesota is averaging 224 yards per game on the ground, and its defense ranks 33rd in the country. Finally, the Gophers had lost back-to-back games to Nebraska in 2011 and 2012 by scores of 41-14 and 38-14 but upset the 'Huskers last year, 34-23.
Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers can cover the spread
The 'Huskers will be looking for redemption, after last week's debacle against the Badgers, and for revenge, after last year's loss to the Gophers in Minneapolis. Nebraska had won three games in row, over Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue, by an average score of 38-18 before losing to Wisconsin. The 'Huskers took advantage of some early Badgers mistakes last week to build a 17-3 lead, but lost control after that.
Still, Nebraska is 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS and not quite dead yet in the Big Ten's West Division race. The 'Huskers are averaging 264 yards per game on the ground, and the Gophers defense just got gouged for 289 by the Buckeyes.
Smart Pick
Both these teams are in the same boat, at 4-2 in Big Ten play, and they're built the same way, running a ground-based attack. The spread on this game is more indicative perhaps of reputation, rather than on-field talent. So the smart money here probably lies with Minnesota, plus the points.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
- Nebraska is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine games at home
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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