Starting 10 years ago, Ohio State grabbed the upper hand in its heated rivalry with Michigan, and after last year's crazy win in Ann Arbor the Buckeyes are now 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with the Maize and Blue.
To reach the College Football Playoff Ohio State needs to take care of business twice more, beginning with Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe against the 5-6 Wolverines.
It's just the third time in 20 seasons that the Wolverines have been underdogs by such a wide margin, and the last two times (in 2008) they lost badly each time.
Point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 20-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 47.7-19.6 Buckeyes
Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread
The Wolverines had won three of four games, playing some decent defense in the process, but lost last week to Maryland 23-16. Michigan led that game 16-9 through three quarters, but allowed the Terrapins to score the last two touchdowns of the game.
The Wolverines outgained Maryland 398-312 and outrushed the Terps 292-147, but couldn't convert those advantages into enough points, settling for two short field goals. Michigan doesn't scare anybody offensively, however, the team ranks ninth in the country in total defense and run defense.
Finally, in last year's game against the Buckeyes, as 16-point home dogs, the Wolverines scored with 30 seconds to go to get within one point at 42-41, then boldly went for two, but came up empty.
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread
The Buckeyes' national championship aspirations seemed to take a near-fatal blow when quarterback Braxton Miller was declared lost for the season before the games even started.
But as quarterback J.T. Barrett has played himself into the Heisman conversation following a hiccup back in Week 2, Ohio State has climbed the ranks and now sits just outside the four-team playoff field. The Buckeyes have reeled off nine victories in a row after outlasting Indiana last week 42-27, as Barrett threw four touchdown passes and ran for 78 yards.
Ohio State ranks 10th in the nation in total offense, 19th in total defense and has already won five games by at least 20 points.
Smart Pick
Ohio State owns a big edge on offense, but Michigan owns an edge on defense. The line on the Buckeyes is probably a bit inflated with the game being played in Columbus.
Who knows what the future holds for Brady Hoke and the Wolverines, but if they can't get up for at least this game, there should be a change. So the smart money resides with Michigan and the points, but beware of the fact they lost badly the last two times that Vegas gave them so many points.
Betting Trends
- Michigan is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Ohio State.
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last five games at home.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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