Contrary to popular belief in SEC territory, Ohio State’s fortune could not get any better than playing Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl on January 1 at 8:30 p.m. EST in New Orleans.
SEC fans, and Alabama fans in particular, are laughing right now. They are pointing to the Buckeyes' abysmal 0-10 record against the SEC in bowl games. They are highlighting the drubbing Florida and LSU put on Ohio State in back-to-back BCS championships in 2007 and 2008. They are quick to reference Nick Saban’s last two games against Urban Meyer when Alabama beat Florida 32-13 in the 2009 SEC championship game and 35-6 in the 2010 regular season. Their sense of entitlement is palpable.
Guess what? History does not matter when the teams take the field in a few weeks.
For Meyer and the Buckeyes, the stakes could not be any higher. On the line are Ohio State’s reputation, the Big Ten’s image, a potential berth in the national championship game and the title for best coach in college football. The Buckeyes can also extend the SEC’s championship drought to two years.
Despite the stakes for the Buckeyes, more pressure is on the Crimson Tide. With three championships over the last five years, Alabama has had a lock on SEC and college football supremacy. Everyone outside of Ohio expects Alabama to win convincingly. Oddsmakers have Alabama as 9.5-point favorites. Many feel the Buckeyes don’t even deserve to be playing in the game.
That’s exactly how Meyer wants it too.
Like Florida State, the Buckeyes are at their best this season when the doubters are loudest. The us-against-the-world motivational tactic works well for this team.
What is also clear is Ohio State is just beginning to realize its potential. The maturation of this team was up and down as anyone would expect from a youthful squad, but the moment has come to prove whether Meyer’s vision for this program is a reality or still a work in progress. As the saying goes, to be the best you have to beat the best. It is time to put the Buckeyes to the test.
Here are three keys to the game for Ohio State.
Red-Zone Offense and Defense
Alabama’s greatest strength this year is keeping teams from scoring touchdowns. Saban is a master at putting his defense in position to lock down the short field, making it nearly impossible to score. Just ask Auburn. Settling for field goals cost the Tigers the Iron Bowl this year.
On the season, Alabama’s opponents entered the red zone 40 times, and the defense gave up 15 touchdowns and 18 field goals. Amazingly, it allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season. When execution matters most, the Crimson Tide’s defense rises to the occasion.
The Buckeyes’ offense was just as efficient inside the red zone this year. In 65 trips, it scored 46 touchdowns and made eight field goals. Expect Meyer to continue being aggressive and playing with tempo inside the red zone by using misdirection, rollouts and wildcat plays to keep the defense off balance.
Alabama’s offense also capitalized on its chances inside the red zone this season. In 60 trips, it scored 41 touchdowns, 25 rushing and 16 passing. It also made 10 field goals.
The Buckeyes allowed 26 touchdowns, 17 on the ground, this season inside the red zone so expect Alabama to try to exploit Ohio State’s vulnerability with its power-rushing attack.
Offensively, Meyer’s red-zone strategy in this game will be intriguing. Sean Nuernberger is an unreliable field-goal kicker. If it comes down to going for it on fourth down or trying for three points, don’t be surprised if Meyer keeps him on the bench.
Besides stopping the run, the Buckeyes’ defense needs to put pressure on quarterback Blake Sims. He does not make a lot of mistakes, but the defense cannot allow him to sit comfortably in the pocket until receiver Amari Cooper gets open. They must contain the pocket and force him to release the ball early.
Third-Down Efficiency
Ohio State and Alabama are about as equal as teams can get when it comes to third-down efficiency.
Both offenses put themselves in favorable third-down situations by avoiding tackles for loss, sacks and penalties. The defenses keep opponents in 3rd-and-long by getting sacks, avoiding penalties and tackling well.
On offense, the Buckeyes are converting 51 percent of the time on third down and the Crimson Tide are converting 54 percent of their chances. Each offense is incredibly balanced and can score through big plays in the air or pounding the ball on the ground.
Defensively, Ohio State is allowing opponents to convert 37 percent of the time on third down and Alabama’s opponents are converting 32 percent of their chances. When they are on, these defenses frustrate, harass and take the will away from their opponents.
Losing does not happen often, but recent history indicates the team that executes well on third down will win this game. In Alabama’s last three defeats, the defense allowed opponents to covert 48 percent of the time on third down while the offense converted 39 percent of its chances.
In Ohio State’s last three losses, the defense allowed opponents to convert 47 percent of the time on third down while the offense converted 18 percent of its chances.
Bottom line, the Buckeyes will win this game if the defense gets off the field when it has the opportunity to and the offense consistently moves the chains.
Playing Physical
Given the outcome against the Badgers, it would not surprise me if the Buckeyes turned their attention to the Big Ten championship game after beating Minnesota on November 15. I don’t think Meyer overlooked Indiana and Michigan, but neither team had the talent to beat the Buckeyes.
With several weeks to prepare, Meyer showed everyone just how good his young team was against Wisconsin. The lines were dominant, defenders gang tackled, receivers routinely beat double coverage, the backs ran through tackles and special teams were on fire. Everything went right against the Badgers and the same is needed against the Crimson Tide. It won’t be easy though.
For the first time this season, Ohio State will be facing a team that matches its speed, power and athleticism. Alabama’s foundation is built on being a physical team that overpowers opponents. This game will be a 15-round heavyweight fight. It will try to wear down the Buckeyes. To win the game, Ohio State will have to take Alabama’s punches, get nasty and deliver a knockout blow late in the game.
Analysis
There is nothing better than having two great teams slugging it out for a chance to make it to the championship game.
Few coaches can match Saban when it comes to preparation. Meyer is one of them. Few teams can match Alabama’s tradition and standing in college football. Ohio State is one of them.
Many Alabama players have been in this position already playing in the BCS championship two years ago. It will be interesting to see how Ohio State’s young players respond on the big stage. The Buckeyes shined against Michigan State and Wisconsin. Can they do it again?
The Buckeyes might be underdogs, but they are hardly inferior. They just need to execute and not make the game bigger than it needs to be. To win, the offense will need to avoid three-and-outs, score touchdowns instead of field goals and be stronger at the point of attack. The defense needs tackle well and stop Cooper from making big plays down the field.
Meyer was hired to get the Buckeyes to this level and compete for titles. There have been a couple of minor hiccups, but his team is ready to deliver. Three years of recruiting and coaching top-level athletes has led to this moment. They are going to have to dig deep, but the Buckeyes will prevail and punch their ticket to Dallas to meet the winner of the semifinal game between Florida State and Oregon. Ohio State wins 31-27.
Read more Big Ten Football news on BleacherReport.com