It seems almost a given that Ohio State will begin the 2015 season ranked as the No. 1 team in the country. Ending the year in that same spot isn't so certain, not in this new playoff era that we've leaped into in college football.
As good as the Buckeyes are projected to be as defending national champions, the odds are not in their favor to repeat. This isn't a prediction based on ability as much as it is circumstances, that all-encompassing word that seems like it shouldn't matter but far too often does when dealing with 18 to 22-year-old athletes competing in an increasingly professional-level sport.
Even before OSU completed their amazing run to the title earlier this month, I tabbed the Buckeyes as the most likely of the first College Football Playoff semifinalists to make a return trip to the playoffs. Nothing about that prediction has changed in the past two weeks, though now that they are champions the more pressing question is whether they can do it again.
"I've got a bunch of really good players, and I love our coaching staff," Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer said the day after beating Oregon 42-20 for the title, via the Times-Picayune. "The word repeat, we'll have that conversation, certainly not today."
Meyer may want to hold off on talking about the "R" word yet, but the question is still out there, and here's our answer: Nope.
Too much has to go perfectly for that to happen, and not enough of it is completely in the control of Meyer, his staff and his talented roster.
Here are some factors that will dictate why Ohio State will not be the 2015 national champions.
The Florida State Factor
To determine the future, one must first look into the recent past. Florida State was the first team to get a chance to repeat as champions in the new playoff era, albeit doing so after winning a title under the old BCS format beforehand. Yet the Seminoles serve as a succinct cautionary tale for how difficult it is to do it again.
On paper, the talent and skill of the 2014 FSU team wasn't much different than the one that blazed through the 2013 season and then outlasted Auburn for the championship. Yes, there were some holes that had to be filled, but with Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston, a veteran offensive line and key defensive stars all still around, it wasn't like the Seminoles were rebuilding.
FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher tried to focus more on repeating than defending, telling 247Sports' Tim Linafeltlast summer that "you're not competing against the past. You're playing against the opponent that's on the field at that time. Stay in the moment, practice in the moment, and live in the moment."
And yet, as each week went on and FSU kept winning, eventually running its win streak to 29 games, it seemed like more discussion about the Seminoles was related to what they were doing wrong—compared to the results of 2013—and how they were on the brink of failure rather than laud their accomplishments.
Ohio State should expect nothing less than this. It's an unofficial part of the package that comes with being defending champions, the assumption that the sequel has to be better than the original despite getting evaluated in a completely different light.
The Heat of the Spotlight
As one of the most followed programs in the country, Ohio State's players and coaches should be used to bright lights and rabid fans. But the national interest in the Buckeyes hit some of its lowest levels in years early last season after the home loss to Virginia Tech made it seem like any chance of a postseason bid was dead in the water.
The fascination with OSU's comeback and constant improvement grew as the season went along, but it paralleled the increase in confidence that the team itself showed as it kept getting better. The Buckeyes, the media and fan interest all grew together, organically, eliminating the chance that the spotlights would get too warm too quickly.
That won't be the case this time around, as those lights will be dialed up to 10 from the outset. And they'll be so bright that if any stumbles happen similar to early in the 2014 season, they will end up standing out even more as the lights reveal any and all blemishes.
The Quarterback Quagmire
Ohio State loses eight starters or key reserves from the 2014 team, but the biggest personnel issue involves returning players. Three of them in fact, all of whom play the same position.
Dozens of FBS programs will be trying to find a quarterback that fits into the offense they want to run this fall, while the Buckeyes have to figure out how to sort out the rare situation of having three passers who have each shown the ability to handle the job in Columbus, and done so with flying colors.
But OSU's offense isn't one where shuffling quarterbacks makes sense, so only one from the lot of senior Braxton Miller, junior Cardale Jones and sophomore J.T. Barrett will end up starting. The others will be relegated to backups or end up going elsewhere.
How Meyer handles his quarterback situation is going to be the most intriguing storyline of the offseason, writes Brian Bennett of ESPN.com: "The situation is so fascinating, and the skills of the quarterbacks are just different enough, that everyone is anxious to find out what happens."
In many ways, this is one of those "good" problems that all teams would love to deal with, at least in theory. Instead, it has the strong likelihood of becoming its own reality show, especially once Miller (shoulder) and Barrett (leg, ankle) return from the injuries that led to OSU using three quarterbacks this past season.
It will make for great copy and huge ratings, but the participants in this show aren't likely to be as excited as everything plays out.
The Herman Effect
Meyer is one of two FBS coaches to win national titles at two different schools, joining Alabama's Nick Saban. The head coach gets the lion's share of the credit for such feats, and deservedly so, but it's in no way a one-man effort to lead a team to a championship.
Coaches like Meyer and Saban understand the importance of having a top-notch coaching staff around them, and trying to replace those assistants when they inevitably leave for better opportunities is just as critical.
Offensive coordinator Tom Herman, who managed to make the transition between three quarterbacks seem completely seamless, is now the head coach at Houston. He's been replaced by Ed Warinner and Tim Beck, the former elevated from offensive line coach and the latter coming over from Nebraska.
Both should fare well, but past history shows that such significant changes to a staff have an impact on the ensuing season for a defending champion.
Defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt left Florida State after the 2013 season and the Seminoles defense struggled to match the previous results; the same thing happened when Pruitt stepped down as Alabama's secondary coach to go to FSU after helping the Crimson Tide win the 2012 title.
Final Thoughts
When asked about the concept of repeating less than 24 hours after accepting the championship trophy, Meyer indicated that his players have the mindset to make it happen because of the way they've been taught. They were given a three-step process to handling what he called "missions."
At his press conference the day after the title game, Meyer said, via the Times-Picayune:"When they accomplish a mission they can celebrate, the next thing they do is learn from it and then the final thing is they look forward to the next mission that's assigned to them."
This setup makes it possible for the Buckeyes to approach defending their title in a manner that could lessen the impact of many of the factors listed above. But nothing can prepare them for the uncertainty of the unknown and the tendency in today's sports world to overanalyze and overreact to every piece of potentially bad information.
It's one of many wild cards that will prevent Ohio State from repeating as champions in 2015.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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