After a two-year run that's included a 24-3 record and a pair of wins in major bowl games, Michigan State deserves the benefit of the doubt.
And with four months to go until the start of the 2015 season, the Spartans appear to be receiving it.
With spring football over and the start of fall camp still in the distance, way-too-early Top 25 lists have Michigan State returning to the discussion of college football's national title contenders. Phil Steele placed the Spartans sixth overall in his latest preseason projections for the 2015 season, while ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach pegged head coach Mark Dantonio's squad at No. 8 in his post-spring practice rankings.
It's not difficult to see what prognosticators like in Michigan State, which returns 13 starters from last season's 11-2 team. Among the Spartans' key returning contributors are quarterback Connor Cook, left tackle Jack Conklin and defensive end Shilique Calhoun, each of whom currently project to be picked in the first round of next year's NFL draft.
"The Spartans defense is always solid and has seven starters back," Steele wrote as he explained the rationale behind his Michigan State ranking. "They have one road game against a team that finished in the AP Top 25, and that's a big one (Ohio State). They do get to host Oregon in Week 2 with the Ducks breaking in a new QB."
But while it's easy to see all that the Spartans return from last year's team, what about all they have lost?
On the offensive side of the ball, Cook will no longer have his top two receivers from last season to rely on or Michigan State's leading rusher. Wideouts Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery were each selected in the fifth round of last weekend's draft by the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans, respectively, while the Chicago Bears picked running back Jeremy Langford in the fourth round.
Add in the uncertain status of running back Delton Williams, who was arrested for a weapons charge and subsequently suspended indefinitely earlier this spring, and it's realistic that the Spartans could start the 2015 season without an experienced running back on their roster. Talented returning receiver Macgarrett Kings Jr. has also proved unreliable after enduring his second offseason arrest in as many years in March.
"Wide receivers, we lost two great players," Dantonio said during a spring practice press conference. "I think we have players there, but we have to adapt and see who is going to step up in that area.
"We lost a great—two great tailbacks, actually. So it's time for new guys to rise up."
The experience of Cook, who's entering his third season as Michigan State's starting quarterback, should help ease the Spartans' offensive transition, as should an experienced offensive line that returns four starters. Cook, for his part, spent the spring praising the crop of playmakers who will attempt to replace Mumphery and Lippett, who was the 2014 Richter-Howard Receiver of the Year.
"Obviously losing Tony and Keith are big losses, but we have some other senior leaders who are stepping up in Macgarrett Kings, Aaron Burbridge and AJ Troup, and then younger guys like R.J. Shelton, Matt Macksood and TresBarksdale,'' Cook said in an appearance on the Big Ten Network in March, via Mike Griffith of MLive.com. "We're getting the timing down on the field, and they are stepping up as leaders off the field.''
Defensively, the Spartans should have less to worry about, given both their minimal departures and that being the side of the ball where Dantonio's expertise lie. Nevertheless, Michigan State will have to replace first-round cornerback TraeWaynes, middle linebacker Taiwan Jones and arguably the top defensive coordinator in the country in new Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi.
Despite possessing almost as many key losses as returnees from a depth chart standpoint, Dantonio is hopeful the experience—and leadership—of players such as Cook and Calhoun will help fill the voids left from last year's team.
"We have a senior class that probably has as much experience as we've had since we've been here," Dantonio said. "These guys are sophomores when we won the Rose Bowl. And now they have to assume a leadership position. I think it's natural progression, but they have to work on it."
And while time will tell if the Spartans seniors will do just that, the reality is that it's a problem not just unique in East Lansing. All across the country and each season, teams are forced to replace key players from the year prior, and Michigan State is no different after having four players picked in last weekend's draft.
But with the losses to Big Ten rival and defending national champion Ohio State being minimal and Jim Harbaugh seemingly having Michigan on the rise, it will be imperative for the Spartans to maintain their momentum from the past two seasons. If they can't, their window to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff could shut before they know it, as they won't be afforded the luxury of an experienced returning quarterback in 2016.
"I don't think you get to where we are at in the Rose Bowls and Cotton Bowls, things of that nature, without having great players," Dantonio said in a conference call on Monday. "Collectively, as a group, we've got some guys with great ability. But again, gotta play your way to the top. And as we've just said, you can see how difficult that is."
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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