Ohio State is a ridiculous 40-3 straight up in three-plus seasons under head coach Urban Meyer, and 25-18 against the spread. But the Buckeyes are sometimes favored by a touch too much, and are only 3-5 ATS when listed as chalk of 30 points or more. The defending national champs face another stiff spread when they host defending MAC champion Northern Illinois Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe.
Point spread: Buckeyes opened as 31.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 46.6-24.2 Buckeyes
Why the Northern Illinois Huskies can cover the spread
NIU is off to a 2-0 start to the season after dispatching Murray State last week 57-26, covering as a 29-point favorite. The Huskies only led by 10 points early in the third quarter, then scored 31 of the game's last 41 points to pull away. Northern Illinois racked up 643 yards of offense, running for 254 yards while quarterback Drew Hare threw for 358 yards and four scores.
Two weeks ago the Huskies opened the season with a 38-30 victory over UNLV.
Northern Illinois returned 13 starters this year from the team that won the MAC championship last season, including Hare, who owns a career 26-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and eight on defense. On top of that the Huskies are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Big Ten Conference, including outright victories the last two seasons at Iowa, at Purdue and at Northwestern.
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread
Ohio State is also 2-0 on the season after handling Hawaii last week 38-0. The Buckeyes only led by a touchdown after one quarter, and 14-0 at the half, but the outcome was never in doubt; Ohio State seemed more interested in not embarrassing the Rainbow Warriors than in covering the spread as 41-point chalk.
Two weeks ago Ohio State opened defense of its national championship with a 42-24 victory at Virginia Tech, covering as 13-point favorites. The Buckeyes had to come from behind, after trailing 17-14 at the half, but in the end outgained the Hokies by 250 yards and outrushed them by 230.
OSU is a monster at the moment, with 14 starters and a ton of talent back from the team that won it all last year. If the Buckeyes can beat Hawaii by 38 points on an off day, they can win this game by a similar amount.
Smart pick
The outcome of this game is not in doubt; Northern Illinois would need a major miracle to pull off the upset. So the only uncertainty is the margin of victory for Ohio State. The Buckeyes actually started a little slow last week against Hawaii, so they might be looking for a quicker start Saturday. And when it comes time to take out the starters they'll still probably field a better team than the Huskies. The smart play here is with the champs, minus the points.
Betting trends
Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against the Big Ten.
The total has gone over in eight of Northern Illinois' last nine games on the road in September.
Ohio State is 22-0 SU against the MAC.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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