The last time Indiana beat Ohio State on a football field, none of the current players on either team were alive. But the Hoosiers, who have lost 20 times in a row to the Buckeyes, are 4-0 against the spread over the last four meetings. Indiana takes its shot at the defending national champs Saturday afternoon in Bloomington.
Point spread: Buckeyes opened as 17.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.9-24.1 Buckeyes
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread
OSU is off to a 4-0 start to this season after beating Western Michigan last week 38-12. The Buckeyes led 14-0, gave up a long touchdown pass for a score, then scored the next 17 points of the game to take control. Ohio State piled up 511 yards of offense, 223 on the ground, although ultimately it couldn't cover as heavy home chalk.
So far this season, the Buckeyes' best performance came in the toughest spot: a 42-24 victory at Virginia Tech. But the beginning of the Big Ten season might provide an emotional kick as OSU shoots for a second consecutive conference championship and the berth in the College Football Playoff that will probably come with it.
Finally, Ohio State is 14-0 SU and 9-5 ATS on the road under head coach Urban Meyer.
Why the Indiana Hoosiers can cover the spread
IU is also off to a 4-0 start to this season, and 3-1 ATS, after winning at Wake Forest last week 31-24, covering as a three-point road favorite. The Hoosiers took a 7-0 lead eight minutes into the game and never trailed, eventually building a 31-10 advantage, before allowing the Demon Deacons to score twice in the last six minutes.
Indiana out-rushed Wake 211-99, held the ball for almost 32 minutes and didn't turn the ball over even once; that's how you win games and cover spreads on the road in college football.
Despite the long losing streak in this series, the Hoosiers have actually given the Buckeyes several good games over recent seasons. Last year, at the Horseshoe, Indiana led 20-17 midway through the third quarter, before giving way, easily covering as a 36-point dog. If the Hoosiers can get a running game going, convert some third downs into firsts and avoid the turnovers, they could keep this one interesting too.
Smart pick
Indiana is off to a great start, while Ohio State just hasn't looked like the powerhouse it's supposed to be in the last few weeks. But the bottom line here is the Buckeyes are the better team, playing on the road, where the spread is more amenable. The smart money here resides with OSU.
Betting trends
Ohio State is 15-0 SU in its 15 games against Indiana.
Ohio State is 18-0 SU in its last 18 games.
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.
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