When you go home this evening, I want you to have “the talk” with your children.
This won’t be easy, but their innocent ears need to hear it. They deserve to hear it. You can’t put this off any longer; now is the time.
Try to map out the words on the way home. It’ll flow better this way. Be firm, but not unsettling. Be thoughtful, but not befuddling. Be the parent you’ve always hoped you’d be in situations such as these. The most impactful conversation of your life is at your doorstep.
You can do this. I know you can.
It’s time for you to talk with your children about undefeated Iowa—the fly in the College Football Playoff ointment.
Welcome to a world where Iowa is without a loss two months into the college football season.
The schedule has been unquestionably favorable. The style points are not exactly stacked neatly in a robust pile. This isn’t Ohio State. This isn’t Baylor. But less than a week before the release of the first College Football Playoff standings, Iowa undeniably finds itself on the outskirts of the conversation, whether you believe it belongs there or not. Smell that sweet, succulent air.
This is news to Kirk Ferentz. Not the fact that his team is 7-0; he’s well aware of that. But just a few short days ago, Iowa’s head coach learned, through a press conference, that the selection committee will unveil its first Top 25 next Tuesday.
He also still has no plans to watch or DVR the festivities.
“We haven’t talked much about it, but these kids aren’t dumb,” Ferentz told Bleacher Report earlier this week. “I can’t imagine there’s a team in our league that doesn’t want to play in the championship game.”
This dream would have sounded foolish back in August. Having lost five of its final seven games last season, Iowa entered 2015 with minimal expectations. One could argue that rock bottom had arrived. The program said goodbye to the nation’s best offensive lineman. It lost an abundance of meaningful snaps.
Even through the wins, there have been losses. Defensive end Drew Ott, the Hawkeyes’ best player, is out for the year with a torn ACL. Running back Jordan Canzeri, the offense’s most dynamic weapon, is still hobbled with an ankle injury.
The offensive line has been an elaborate game of duck, duck, goose. The starting quarterback, C.J. Beathard, has spent the better part of the last month moving with a pronounced limp. And still, zero losses.
The bye week arrived just in time. Well, almost.
“True confession,” Ferentz said. “I thought we needed it the week prior. I thought we might have pushed a little too far going to Chicago. The guys really came through.”
In the 40-10 road win over Northwestern in Week 7, Ferentz watched sophomore running back AkrumWadley visit the end zone four times. Coming into the game, Wadley had logged eight carries all season.
It’s been that type of year. “Next man up” is a tired and clichéd philosophy, but it’s been adopted in Iowa City. It has not always been pretty or easy on the eyes, but it has come together. Against Northwestern, it really came together.
After the win, Ferentz wanted his players to get away with a week off. Even he decompressed some, spending last Saturday at his granddaughter’s birthday party before doing some evening recruiting.
Before his team shut things down for a few days, the usually reserved head coach delivered a surprising message.
“I encouraged them to think and dream big for a couple of days,” Ferentz said. He then couldn’t help but laugh before finishing the statement. “I don’t want them to think I’m a tyrant.”
There’s something deeper to this sound bite—a movement that has garnered traction over the past month. Suddenly, after 17 years, Ferentz has developed a new nickname.
You ready for this? It's off-the-walls creative.
New Kirk.
It’s simple and somehow appropriate. It’s the product of winning. But more so than that, it’s a newfound aggressive mindset—a mindset Ferentz believes has existed all along.
It’s the play-calling. It’s the fake field-goal attempts. It’s going for it on fourth down rather than settling from three points. Strangely enough, many of these attempts have failed. The aggression has not always resulted in positive results, at least not instantly.
But the energy is palpable. There's an edge to this team. New Kirk.
When asked about his new nickname, Ferentz could only offer up more laughter. Not a deep belly laugh, but a kind of chuckle, chock-full of appreciation. Whether he agrees with the nickname or not, there’s something to be said about a longtime coach being recognized for changing his ways, even if he feels it's business as usual. Clearly others feel differently.
“It’s entertaining,” Ferentz said of the nickname. “If people think this is new, that’s wonderful. But it’s pretty much the same old story here.”
When his team returned to practice after the bye week, having explored the glorious possibilities ahead, Ferentz greeted each of them with a sheet of paper.
Included on this handout was a list of upsets and near upsets that have transpired over the course of the season. The list was all-encompassing, with a focus on the Big Ten.
It was a reminder that now, strangely, Iowa is being hunted rather than doing the hunting. After allowing a few days of stargazing, it was back to reality.
“Nobody knew who we were a month ago, and now there’s a little talk about us,” Ferentz said. “But all that talk doesn’t impact games. We’re not even 40 percent done with the Big Ten schedule yet, so all of that is premature. There is so much football to be played.”
Let’s talk about that football to be played, shall we? This part is important. In fact, it’s the most potent ingredient in this chaos cocktail.
Through seven games this season, Iowa has wins over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Those are the greatest hits. It's not the nation's most robust resume. It's probably not as bad as it's made out to be, either. Iowa, now positioned at No. 10 in the AP Poll, is right where it belongs.
Questions exist, and understandably so. The Hawkeyes have not looked the part of a national power. Still, zero losses in a Power Five conference will take you places.
The rest of the schedule is where the fascination kicks up another notch. Iowa will play Maryland at home this weekend. After that, Ferentz's team will play a dangerous game at Indiana. The final three weeks feature home matchups against Minnesota and Purdue, followed by a road finale at Nebraska.
While Iowa will not receive any boosts for its closing strength of schedule, there's a decent likelihood of staying unbeaten for a while longer. None of these games should be assumed wins. Not a single one. But take a gander at what some of the Big 12’s finest teams have in November and stack those schedules next to Iowa’s; it’s not even close.
As outlined by Bleacher Report’s analytics expert Ed Feng, Iowa is a threat to win each one of its remaining regular-season games. The percentages are in the Hawkeyes’ favor.
Of course, numbers provide nothing in terms of guarantees. But they do identify opportunity. And Iowa, a little healthier than it was two weeks ago, is suddenly in a position to carry out the chaos for a few more weeks.
“We normally need a couple good stories to emerge,” Ferentz said. “We need a little luck and some good fortune health-wise, which we haven’t had. We don’t recruit the way a couple others do, so we don’t have guys stacked up at positions. It’s a real fine line for us. But the vibe here is very good.”
There are more than just a few good stories. Cornerback Desmond King has emerged as one of the top defensive players in the conference. His six interceptions are second in the nation. Quarterback C.J. Beathard, while not necessarily a statistical monster, has been excellent, even through injuries. Running back Jordan Canzeri, bum ankle and all, is still fourth in the conference in rushing.
With these few fully highlighted, let's not hide the obvious: The likelihood of Iowa making the College Football Playoff is remote.
This isn’t a chaos theory because these dots are so easily connectable; chaos thrives in the unlikely and the great unknown. It will take everything Ferentz alluded to plus a little more.
While it has nowhere near the talent of Ohio State, it may not need such talent to take things a little deeper. For that reason, Iowa will be doubted nationally until it’s undone, whenever (or if ever) that day might arrive.
But with so many winnable games on the horizon, the possibility of Iowa playing Ohio State or Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game for a spot in the College Football Playoff is real enough, despite what our instincts tell us. Unlikely, certainly. Possible, indeed.
It's to the point, inching oh, so close to November, that we should at least acknowledge this possibility. You don't have to buy it or even understand it, but at least admit that, right now, it's there.
And if and when it all blows up, we can talk about those fun few weeks. The chaos potential will morph into a story about a quality team that many, including myself, thought would miss out on a bowl game. That's not exactly the worst consolation prize.
In the meantime, you should probably have that talk with your children. Just in case.
They have a right to know. It’s up to you to tell them. Deep breaths.
Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand.
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