COLUMBUS, Ohio — Much like this time a year ago, Ohio State enters the final week of its regular season with one loss on its resume and its postseason aspirations still up in the air.
But unlike last season, which ultimately resulted in the Buckeyes capturing the first-ever College Football Playoff championship, Ohio State doesn't control its own destiny and is going to need help if it's going to have any shot at defending its crown.
The Buckeyes' 17-14 last-second loss to Michigan State on Saturday transferred control of the Big Ten East to the Spartans, with Ohio State and Michigan still in contention for the right to play Iowa in the Big Ten title game.
The Buckeyes and Wolverines will play each other in Ann Arbor at noon next weekend, with the winner having their championship hopes decided 65 miles away in the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff between Michigan State and Penn State.
If the Spartans beat the Nittany Lions, they win the Big Ten East and advance to Indianapolis for a potential playoff play-in game with the Hawkeyes. If Penn State pulls off the upset, a delayed celebration will occur for the winner in the Ohio State and Michigan's matchup.
In the Buckeyes' dream scenario, they'd beat the ranked Wolverines, the Nittany Lions would take down Michigan State and OSU would go on to add a win over an undefeated Iowa team to their resume.
But with what happened on Saturday, all of that looks much easier said than done.
Particularly when it comes to the Buckeyes offense, which mustered just 132 yards against the Spartans, leading star running back Ezekiel Elliott to emphatically question his coaches' play-calling, before declaring for the 2016 NFL draft. While a heavy dose of rain may have played a factor in Ohio State's conservative approach, it doesn't bode well for the Buckeyes that after struggling against Michigan State, they'll now take on a Michigan team that entered the weekend with the nation's second-ranked defense.
Approached with the possibility of the next two weeks putting Ohio State back in the playoff discussion, Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer's attention immediately went to his team's inability to move the ball.
"Oh, boy, we've got to get a couple of first downs and start finding a way to complete a pass and beat our rival," Meyer said in his postgame press conference. "That's certainly not any conversation. You're right, a lot of things [can] happen, but we've gotta fix some obvious problems."
Even if the Buckeyes, who could find themselves as an underdog for the first time all season next weekend, get by the Wolverines, they'll then find themselves relying on an even bigger upset occurring in East Lansing.
Ranked ninth in the most recent College Football Playoff standings and heading for a climb, Michigan State has momentum on its side and could see quarterback Connor Cook return to the lineup next weekend after the senior signal-caller missed the Spartans' upset over OSU with a shoulder injury.
Penn State, meanwhile, has lost its last two games and will head to Spartan Stadium with a disappointing 7-4 record that doesn't include a win over any ranked opponents.
With quarterback Christian Hackenberg, the Nittany Lions should be able to test an MSU defense that ranked 86th against the pass before coming to Columbus. But outside of Penn State playing its best game of the season and the Spartans laying an egg—sorry, Jim Harbaugh—with its Big Ten East title hopes on the line, it's hard to imagine the Nittany Lions escaping East Lansing with a win.
If that's the case, Ohio State will find itself on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff, even if the Buckeyes lone blemish of the season is the three-point loss to a Top 10 team that they suffered on Saturday.
If the selection committee showed anything last year, it was that conference championships are what matter most and without the opportunity to even play for one, leaving Ohio State out of the four-team format would be an easy call.
But before the Buckeyes can worry about getting any help from Penn State, they'll need to first beat the Wolverines. And after their most recent performance, that might prove to be the toughest part of any equation that could possibly land Ohio State in a position to defend its national title.
"We've just been hit right in the gut," Meyer said. "You've got the rivalry coming up. It's easy to lead when everything is going well, and you won a bunch of games in a row. That's not how you judge a team. That's not how you judge character. That's not how you judge a leader. That's how you judge a front-runner."
After Saturday, the Buckeyes are no longer that. And even if they issue the response Meyer is looking for, it may just not be enough.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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