By this time next week, Big Ten media days in Chicago will have come and gone. That means the start of fall camp is almost here, and the 2016 season isn't far behind.
With the unofficial start to the upcoming campaign upon us, let's get to the latest Big Ten Q&A. This week, we'll tackle who should be considered the conference favorites, Nebraska's status as a league sleeper, the latest rap video star to emanate from Ann Arbor and the new opening in Ohio State's backfield.
As always, you can send me your questions on Twitter each week @BenAxelrod.
Let's get started.
While some conferences—like the SEC—unveil an official preseason poll at their annual media days, the Big Ten limits its preseason prognostications to a predictable list of 10 players to watch. The closest item the conference can claim to an on-record preseason poll is one conducted each summer by Cleveland.com, which has yet to reveal this year's picks.
In some seasons, the favorite is fairly easy to predict. Last year, Cleveland.com's poll deemed Ohio State a unanimous favorite to repeat as league champions as the Buckeyes prepared to defend their 2014 national title.
This year, however, forecasting the Big Ten favorite doesn't seem quite as easy. The premature top-25s released by members of the media favor Michigan, according to a list of such polls compiled by Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson, but the Wolverines hardly hold a significant lead over Ohio State, while Michigan State and Iowa rarely trail too far behind.
As for my opinions of the division winners, in the West, it's hard to go against the Hawkeyes. Not only does Iowa return most of the key cogs—including quarterback C.J. Beathard and Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Desmond King— from last year's 12-0 team, but the Hawkeyes' two toughest games of the season against Michigan and Nebraska each come at home.
Consistency has hardly been a constant in Iowa City under Kirk Ferentz, but this year, the stars seem to be aligning. At this point, it'd take an upset or two for anyone other than Iowa to be representing the Big Ten West in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game this December.
In the East, predicting a title winner gets trickier, but for now, I'm sticking with the Buckeyes. Even with all the uncertainty caused by a mass exodus of talent on the OSU roster, the Buckeyes don't only know who their starting quarterback is, but can lay claim to one of the best in the nation in J.T. Barrett, which is more than either the Wolverines or Spartans can say at the moment.
As for who would win a theoretical matchup between Ohio State and Iowa, I'd side with the Buckeyes. In Big Ten recruiting right now, there's Urban Meyer and there's everyone else, and 2016 could be the season that shows us exactly how important that is.
Early this summer—and in a previous Q&A—I made the case for Nebraska to be the Big Ten's sleeper team in 2016.
And while I still believe in a lot of the factors that went into my proclamation—last year's bad luck, the returning talent, the growth expected in Year 2 under Mike Riley—I keep coming back to two roadblocks that keep me from being confident in my pick: the quarterback and the schedule.
Tommy Armstrong Jr. is talented and experienced, but he's also been turnover-prone. Last year, the dual-threat signal-caller threw 16 interceptions, and a year before, his INT total sat at 12. Sure, there's a degree of luck that goes into whether a quarterback winds up picked off or not, but those are alarming results by any measure.
Can a team really win the Big Ten with its quarterback throwing double-digit picks? I'm skeptical.
And then there's the Cornhuskers' schedule, which appears less than favorable for a potential Big Ten title run. Even erasing the potential damage an early-season loss to Oregon could cause, Nebraska begins conference play on the road against a Northwestern team coming off a 10-2 regular-season campaign and faces Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa, each on the road.
In order to have a realistic chance at winning the Big Ten West, the Huskers would likely have to amass a 3-1 record over the course of those four road games. At this point, I'm not buying it.
In theory, I like the over-8.5-wins pick and understand at 8-1, Nebraska winning the whole league is decent value. But with the road the Huskers have ahead, even I can't say that I'd stand firmly behind either bet at the moment.
Have I seen Jim Harbaugh's cameo in rapper Bailey's Harbaugh-inspired "Who's Got it Better Than Us?" music video? Of course.
And if you haven't, you should check it out, too.
As for the notion this video might be what puts Michigan over the top, that might be a bit much. But as for the second question here about the Wolverines' relationship with the Jordan Brand, that is something worth taking note of.
Sure, Ohio State fans might conveniently not be able to make sense of a basketball logo on a football uniform, and kids today might know Michael Jordan more as an internet meme than they do a basketball icon, but the reality is that the Jordan Brand is still cool, as evidenced by the hype surrounding Wednesday's reveal of the Air Jordan XXXI shoe.
Earlier in the day, Michigan had a reveal of its own, with the first images of its Jordan Brand apparel being shown to reporters and, in turn, social media. No other college program can claim to have been a part of such a moment, which once again created headlines for the Wolverines in an offseason that's been full of them in Ann Arbor.
"Cool" and college coaches haven't always been one in the same, and yet Harbaugh has found a way to pull it off, whether he's riding around in a maize Lamborghini for a rap video or inviting Jordan to be an honorary captain at the Wolverines' opener. That shows up in recruiting, and thus far, Harbaugh's results have spoken for themselves.
Who's got it better than Michigan? When it comes to the offseason at least, Harbaugh's got the answer: nobody.
When now-former Ohio State running back Bri'onte Dunn was released from the program earlier this week, it was seemingly a big blow to the Buckeyes. After all, this was one of the key players expected to help replace the the 1,821 yards and 23 touchdowns Ezekiel Elliott is taking to the NFL.
But if you dig a little deeper into where the Ohio State running back situation stands heading into fall camp, it seems more likely the Buckeyes will be just fine.
For one, there aren't many fifth-year seniors who spend their first four years on campus as non-contributors before bursting out in their final campaigns. Sure, Dunn had Elliott ahead of him on the depth chart and Carlos Hyde before that, but even as recently as 2014, he had been surpassed by Curtis Samuel on the OSU depth chart for the role of Elliott's primary backup.
Now the Buckeyes will predominately be relying on Mike Weber, who likely would have won the starting job this fall with or without Dunn still on the roster. If anything, Dunn's departure should mean an increase in touches for Samuel, who was expected to resume a hybrid receiver-running back role in Meyer's spread offense.
Ultimately, however, Weber has always been the running back on the OSU roster with the highest upside heading into this season, even when comparing him with Dunn. His crowning as the Buckeyes's starter will be more of a formality than anything else, as the redshirt freshman from Detroit will get the first crack at being the next great running back in Meyer's spread system.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. Recruiting and class ratings courtesy of 247Sports' composite ratings.
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