Penn State is having a terrible time on the road as of late, going just 3-10 straight up and 2-9-2 against the spread over its last 13 road trips. The Nittany Lions face a tough road task this week when they visit Michigan at the Big House on Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 15.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.2-20.9 Wolverines (college football picks on every game)
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread
The Lions bounced back from a tough loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago to beat Temple last week 34-27. Penn State took a 7-0 lead six minutes into the game, pushed that to 21-7 midway through the second quarter, allowed the Owls to get within 27-24 midway through the fourth but put the game away on Saquon Barkley's 55-yard scoring jaunt less than a minute later.
If not for a couple of Lions turnovers and a late Temple field goal, Penn State would have covered the spread as an eight-point favorite. The Lions outgained the Owls on the day 403-324, allowing just 38 yards on the ground.
Two weeks ago, the Lions fell to the Panthers at Heinz Field 28-7 but rallied to within 42-39 with five minutes to go and reached the outskirts of field-goal range late before an interception ended their comeback.
Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread
The maize and blue are 3-0 on the season after coming from behind to beat Colorado last week 45-28. The Wolverines fell down to the Buffaloes 14-0 just four minutes into the game and trailed 21-7 well into the second quarter. But they battled back, took the lead for good on De'Veon Smith's 42-yard scoring run early in the third and then pulled away from there, tacking on the game's final score when Jabrill Peppers took a punt back 54 yards early in the fourth quarter.
On the day, Michigan outrushed Colorado 168-64, while the Wolverines defense held the Buffaloes to just 1-of-13 on third-down conversions.
Michigan opened this season with a 63-3 romp over Hawaii and then pounded Central Florida 51-14.
Smart pick
The Wolverines are probably going to win this game; the only thing that really matters is the final margin. But Michigan needed a pair of defensive/special teams scores just to push a 17-point spread last week against Colorado, and quarterback Wilton Speight is nursing a sore shoulder. Penn State, meanwhile, looks like it could put enough points on the board to keep this one close. The value here resides with the Lions, despite their recent road struggles.
Betting trends
Penn State is 1-6 SU in its last seven games on the road against Michigan.
Michigan is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.
Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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