Michigan State owns the edge in its rivalry with Wisconsin as of late, winning three of the last four meetings outright and going 4-0 against the spread. The Spartans hope to continue that trend when they host the Badgers in the Big Ten season opener for both teams Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.
Point spread: The Spartans opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.0-25.6 Badgers (college football picks on every game)
Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread
Wisconsin is 3-0 on the season, 2-1 ATS, after avoiding an upset bid by Georgia State last week, beating the Panthers 23-17 at Camp Randall. The Badgers led 6-0 at the half, bumped that to 13-3 midway through the third quarter, fell down 17-13 early in the fourth but immediately drove for a touchdown to retake the lead for good, then held on from there.
On the day Wisconsin out-gained Georgia State 401-313, out-rushed the Panthers 188-44 and won time of possession by a 37-23 margin.
Also, when starting quarterback Bart Houston struggled to get the offense going, backup Alex Hornibrook provided an immediate spark, driving the Badgers to a touchdown on his first possession and to the game-winning score. He finished eight-of-12 passing for 112 yards and one touchdown, and the one interception he threw went through his own receiver's hands first.
UW opened this season with that 16-14 victory over LSU, winning that game outright as a 12-point underdog, then bombed Akron 54-10, easily covering as a 21-point favorite. Running back Corey Clement missed last week's game with a sore ankle, but it's hoped he'll be ready to go this week.
Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread
Michigan State is 2-0 after upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend last week 36-28. The Spartans spotted the Irish the game's first touchdown, then scored 36 unanswered points to take a 29-point lead with 19 minutes to go. Michigan State allowed Notre Dame to get within one score with six minutes left, but the Spartans defense held on from there, securing the outright victory and the cash as seven-point underdogs.
On the night Michigan State out-gained the Irish 501-401, out-rushed them 260-57 and dominated time of possession by a 38-22 split. The Spartans are now 9-3 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in their last 12 games against ranked opponents.
Smart pick
Michigan State just won a huge game on the road, beating Notre Dame last week, but an emotional victory like that brings about the possibility of a letdown this week. Also, this game could turn into a defensive slugfest, and when 17 points could win it it's nice to have a few points in your pocket. The smart money here backs the Badgers.
Betting trends
The total has gone OVER in nine of Wisconsin's last 11 games against Michigan State.
Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games against its conference.
Wisconsin is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
Read more Big Ten Football news on BleacherReport.com