Nebraska is just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread in five meetings with Wisconsin since the former joined the Big Ten six seasons ago. The unbeaten Cornhuskers hope to turn this series around when they battle the Badgers in a key game in the Big Ten West on Saturday night in Madison.
Point spread: The Badgers opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.2-28.0 Cornhuskers (College football picks on every game)
Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers can cover the spread
Nebraska continued its perfect start to this season with a 27-14 victory over Purdue last week. The Cornhuskers took a 7-0 lead 16 seconds into the game, fell down 14-10 early in the second quarter, then scored the last 17 points, holding the Boilers scoreless over the last 40 minutes of the contest.
For the day, Nebraska outrushed Purdue 157-24 and won time of possession by a 33-27 margin. The Cornhuskers have now outgained and outrushed each of their last four opponents, and six of seven this season.
Also, with its 27-22 victory/cover at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska is 3-0 both SU and ATS in its last three road games.
Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread
Wisconsin is now 6-1 ATS on the season, following a 17-9 win/cover at Iowa last week. The Badgers took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter on a drive engineered by backup quarterback Bart Houston and never trailed after that, grinding out a key Big Ten road victory.
That final margin could have been larger, but Wisconsin missed a short field goal early and later lost a fumble from the Hawkeyes one-yard line.
On the afternoon, UWoutgained Iowa 423-236, won the ground battle 167-83 and held the ball for over 37 minutes. The Badgers running game is still spinning a bit, but running back Corey Clement did manage to produce his second straight 100-yard effort last week, gaining 134 yards on 35 carries.
Two weeks ago, Wisconsin lost at home to Ohio State in overtime but outgained and outrushed the Buckeyes.
Smart pick
The Badgers defense ranks among the best in the nation (No. 9 in total yards given up), but Nebraska's isn't bad either, holding five of seven foes this season to 17 points or less. And Wisconsin isn't exactly explosive on offense. When 20 points might win the game, it's awfully nice to have a touchdown in your pocket. The smart money on the college football point spreads here takes the points with the Cornhuskers.
Betting trends
Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against its conference.
Nebraska is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road.
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