The problem with betting on teams like Michigan is the spreads eventually get prohibitively high. Look what's happening to the Wolverines; though they remain undefeated on the season, they're also just 1-3 against the spread over their last four games because they've been favored by so much. Michigan will fight another big number when it hosts Maryland on Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 26.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 48.2-20.0 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)
Why the Maryland Terrapins can cover the spread
The Terps started 4-0 this season, but have lost three of their last four after falling last week at Indiana 42-36. Maryland trailed the Hoosiers early 13-0, rallied to take a 24-23 lead late in the third quarter, but faded from there. On the day the Terrapins racked up 517 yards of offense, including 269 on the ground, as sophomore Ty Johnson came up with his second straight 100-yard effort. Unfortunately, the Terps defense couldn't come up with a stop when needed.
Two weeks ago Maryland added to Michigan State's woes, beating the Spartans 28-17. At 5-3 overall the Terrapins are just a win away from bowl eligibility, after missing out last season.
Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread
The Wolverines stayed on path for the inevitable showdown with Ohio State by winning in East Lansing last week 32-23.
And that game wasn't quite as close as that final score might indicate. Michigan spotted the Spartans the game's first touchdown, then used a 30-3 run to take a 20-point lead into the fourth quarter. It then allowed MSU to score twice, the second time with just one second left on the clock, creating a slightly misleading final tally.
On the day the Wolverines outgained the Spartans 436-401, and more than half of Michigan State's yardage came in garbage time. Michigan has now outgained every opponent this season by an average of more than 245 yards per game.
Smart pick
Barring a minor miracle, Michigan is going to win this game. As always, the only thing that really matters is the final margin. But as often is the case with good teams playing at home, the spread on this contest is probably inflated by half a touchdown or so. If Maryland can just come up with 17 points, it stands a good chance of cashing in on Saturday at online sports betting sites.
Betting trends
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last five games against its conference.
Michigan is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after consecutive ATS losses.
Maryland is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after a loss.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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