PARADISE VALLEY, Ariz. — No one at Ohio State wants to talk about it, because talking about the regression of star quarterback J.T. Barrett would mean acknowledging it. And acknowledging it would mean someone made a mistake.
Instead, the Buckeyes talk about 12 wins and one lousy loss last year, and how they really were the best team in the Big Ten anyway, and who in their right mind wouldn’t want all of that?
"We don’t look backward around here," Urban Meyer is known to say.
So we’re left to talk about what if.
What if Meyer, Ohio State’s uber-successful coach, followed his heart instead of his head last season and inserted J.T. Barrett—the player he has called "one of the greatest I’ve ever coached"—as his starting quarterback instead of strong-armed prototype Cardale Jones from Day 1?
What if Ohio State picked up where it left off under Barrett in 2014, before the redshirt freshman quarterback who set Big Ten records broke his ankle in the last week of the regular season?
What if Barrett, the team’s undisputed leader, a player the team has voted captain the past two years, was given the keys to the offense again—despite the success Jones had leading the Buckeyes to the national title over the final three games of the season?
Maybe, just maybe, Ohio State—which had an NFL-record 11 of the first 102 picks in the 2016 draft, including five in the first round—would be working on winning its third straight national title.
Instead, all we hear is "What’s wrong with J.T.?"
"He’s not close to the player he was in 2014," a rival Big Ten coach told Bleacher Report. "Who am I to question [Meyer]? But they blew it when they played Jones. You could tell they were infatuated with his arm, and it cost them a chance to win it all again. And from the look of it this season, it has cost [Barrett's] development."
That’s the backdrop for a team that spent all season hiding deficiencies in the passing game with Barrett’s dynamic running (and, later, with tailback Mike Weber) and a stout defense, on the verge of being exposed by Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Clemson’s offense, the nation’s most explosive and dangerous, will press the Ohio State defense like no one has this season, placing more pressure on the Buckeyes offense to be nearly flawless in both the running and passing games.
"All nine units on this team have to play perfect," Meyer said, "or we can’t beat Clemson."
That might be coachspeak and hyperbole, but it’s a lot closer to the truth than you’d think. Maybe that’s why Barrett spent a significant amount of time here—away from the comfortable bubble in Columbus—this week in preparations for Saturday’s game, answering pressing questions about the how and why of Ohio State’s struggling passing game.
The Buckeyes are 90th in the nation in completions of 10-plus yards, 97th in completions of 20-plus yards and 107th in completions of 30-plus yards.
Those issues were magnified in the final two weeks of the regular season, when Barrett completed less than 50 percent of his passes (25-of-54) against Michigan State and Michigan and threw for only 210 total yards—in games the Buckeyes desperately needed to lock up a playoff spot.
Ohio State beat the Spartans when Michigan State failed to convert a two-point conversion and then beat Michigan in overtime—with the benefit of a generous fourth-down spot.
When asked about the problems in the passing game, Barrett talked about throwing for more than 200 yards seven times this season, and that no one was questioning his ability after he threw four touchdown passes in a rout at Oklahoma in September. He has a touchdown-to-interception ratio (24-to-5) any quarterback in the nation would take, and even if Ohio State is struggling to throw it farther than 10 yards, it’s not as simple as it looks.
"A lot of little things have to happen that most people, most fans, can’t see," Barrett said.
Here’s what NFL scouts, fans and armchair talent evaluators do see: a quarterback who doesn’t look anything like he did in 2014, whose accuracy on intermediate and deep throws has decreased since 2014 and who simply doesn’t look at ease at any point in the pocket.
They see an Ohio State passing game that was critical to the success of the 2014 national championship team become a liability of sorts this fall against elite defenses. Those aren’t little things.
Those are big red flags.
The genesis of the problems in the passing game began the day after Ohio State won it all in 2014, when star quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator Tom Herman left for his first head coaching job at Houston and Jones decided to stay in Columbus instead of leaving for the NFL.
Herman was the reason Jones played so well in his magical three-game run to finish the 2014 season, and Herman was the reason Barrett set all those school and conference records in his first season.
Once Herman left, Meyer hired Tim Beck—part of the fired Nebraska staff under Bo Pelini—to coach quarterbacks. Beck’s time at Nebraska included a shaky passing game, a freshman star quarterback who never really lived up to his potential (Taylor Martinez) and a unit that rarely performed well in big games.
Barrett went from one of the best teachers in the game to a guy who had a history of uneven results in the passing game and developing quarterbacks. He also went from Herman calling the plays to both Beck and Ohio State offensive line coach Ed Warinner making calls.
When asked if he ever thinks about what could’ve been at Ohio State had Barrett been given the job at the beginning of 2015, Warinner admitted, "Sure, you think about it in the back of your mind…but I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t take 12 wins and winning a major bowl. That’s a successful season."
To Warinner’s point, Ohio State has won 23 of its last 25 games, and for some reason the criticism is about a quarterback who hasn’t played like he did in 2014?
Here’s why: In this age of Alabama vs. the world, there’s no wiggle room for what ifs. If you have a player (Barrett) who will likely leave Ohio State as one of its all-time greats and would’ve began the 2015 season as a Heisman Trophy front-runner, if you have a personality off the field that players trust and follow, why mess with it?
Why not, as Meyer says all the time, strive for perfection?
"When J.T. first got here, before he ever played a down, I remember telling Urban, 'Hey, we’ve got something unique here,'" said Ohio State strength and conditioning coach Mickey Marotti, the man Meyer said is the most important member of the program and the man Meyer trusts unconditionally. "You know, J.T. may not have the strongest arm; he didn’t look like a guy that was going to change everything. [Meyer] looked at me like, Really?
"J.T. was just off-the-charts good before he ever played, and then he got on the field and all of those intangibles translated. You could tell immediately that this guy was going to do great things."
Everyone at Ohio State—from coaches to players to administrative staff members—said the choice of Jones over Barrett didn’t impact the way Barrett prepared in 2015 and hasn’t affected the way he is playing this season.
He was the same player, the same teammate, despite not winning the job, despite sitting and watching the offense sputter week after week under Jones, despite his own uneven play when he replaced an ineffective Jones.
"Nothing affects him," said Ohio State backup quarterback Stephen Collier. "He wasn’t running around thinking, Why me? He was working and thinking, What am I going to do when I get back in there?"
But once Meyer went to Barrett for good in late November last season, it was too late. The offense was a mess, and it failed miserably in a critical loss to Michigan State that ended any hope of repeating as national champions.
While the offense has improved this season from 2015, it still isn’t performing nearly as cohesively and consistently as it did with Barrett in 2014.
The question is, why?
•Confidence and mechanics: When the most popular player on the team is benched, when the guy who set records as a freshman lost his job because he got injured, there has to be some residual impact on the field.
"It looks like he’s afraid to let it go, like he doesn’t have confidence in where it’s going," one NFL scout told Bleacher Report. "When your confidence is shaken, your mechanics will always fall apart. When mechanics fall apart, everything else follows. His feet move constantly in the pocket; he’s rarely set, rarely framed with his hips and shoulders. You can’t do that when you’re looking to drive the ball downfield with accuracy."
•Protection: Ohio State has given up 25 sacks this season, but that number doesn’t include the knockdowns and pressures Barrett has sustained.
From the time the ball is snapped to the time Barrett releases a throw, Meyer said the goal is to make it all happen in 2.7 seconds or less. From read to decision to throw. How many times has that happened?
"Not nearly as much as it should," said Ohio State All-American center Pat Elflein.
If you can’t protect consistently, Barrett is forced to make quicker decisions, constantly moving in the pocket and throwing on the run—all factors that diminish the accuracy of downfield throws.
•Winning on the perimeter: In 2014, Ohio State had Michael Thomas, Devin Smith and Jalin Marshall, all of whom could stretch the defense with speed and win individual battles to get open in press coverage. More than that, they could go get 50-50 balls.
This season, there’s little on the outside to stretch defenses, and none of Ohio State’s three key receivers—Noah Brown, Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson—has consistently won individual battles.
Earlier this week, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson said, "If I throw it anywhere near [star Clemson wideout] Mike [Williams], I know he’s going to go get it."
There’s comfort in that at the quarterback spot, knowing you don’t have to be perfect every play.
"J.T. is not one of those quarterbacks who can make up for deficiencies in the process of the passing game—pass [protection], receivers winning—with a big arm or the ability to place balls in limited windows," another NFL scout said. "That means if every part of the passing process isn’t working, there will be problems. But you can overcome some of that with coaching and putting guys in position to succeed."
That’s where the loss of Herman is as big of a factor as any. Meyer went through the same situation in 2009 at Florida. He lost offensive coordinator and QB coach Dan Mullen—star quarterback Tim Tebow’s crutch—when he left for his first head coaching job at Mississippi State.
Meyer hired Scot Loeffler, who was quarterbacks coach with the winless Detroit Lions a year earlier, to coach quarterbacks and promoted offensive line coach Steve Addazio to coordinate the offense. Sound familiar?
Tebow regressed as a thrower, and the Gators failed to win the SEC (and play for the BCS national title) because the offense wasn’t nearly as dangerous as in 2008, when Florida won it all. Nine players from that 2009 Florida team were selected in the NFL draft, including three in the first round and eight in the first 113 picks.
Sound familiar?
The only difference now? Barrett, unlike Tebow, can still win the national title that eluded him two years ago.
Barrett has played the equivalent of two-and-a-half seasons and already is six touchdowns from tying Drew Brees’ Big Ten record for touchdowns responsible (106). Had Barrett started and played last season, he’d have already broken the record earlier this year, and his progression from Year 2 to Year 3 would be more sharpening the little things instead of questioning them.
And maybe, just maybe, we wouldn’t be talking about what’s wrong with J.T.
"Sometimes you have to accept things happen for a reason," Barrett said. "I haven’t changed, I’m the same person, the same player. Maybe now this is my time."
Follow Matt Hayes on Twitter: @matthayescfb.
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