With a crucial 31-24 win over Minnesota last Saturday, Ohio State is no longer on the outside hoping to be selected to play in the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are now a legitimate contender, if not favorite, among the one-loss teams.
If the committee remains consistent in looking favorably at road wins against Top 25 opponents, the Buckeyes should rise to No. 5 when the Week 3 college football playoff rankings are released later today.
Over the next few weeks, the committee’s task of selecting the four best teams will be increasingly intense as it tries to sort through the myriad of one-loss teams. Oregon and Alabama are locks if they finish with one loss. It feels like Florida State should have about four losses, but like any great champion the Seminoles are refusing to go down. They are in unless they finally collapse.
Preferably the debate gets settled on the field, but rarely has college football been that simple and clean.
All things being relatively equal, the interesting question is whether or not the committee will place more value on how teams are playing now versus September. Mississippi State and TCU have fallen off a bit and Baylor and Ohio State appear to be peaking.
All four teams can make a case to be included in the playoff. How does Ohio State stack up against the other one-loss teams? Pretty favorably when you compare the results.
| Team | Key Wins | Losses | Opponents' Record | Non-Conference Opponents | Remaining Games |
| Baylor | TCU, Oklahoma | WVU | 44-47 | SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo | Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State |
| Mississippi State | Auburn, LSU | Alabama | 59-46 | SMU, South Alabama, UAB, UT-Martin | Vanderbilt, Mississippi, *SEC Championship |
| Ohio State | Michigan State, Minnesota | Virginia Tech | 54-45 | Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, Cincinnati | Indiana, Michigan, *Big Ten Football Championship |
| TCU | Minnesota, WVU | Baylor | 53-44 | Samford, Minnesota, SMU | Texas, Iowa State |
*Mississippi State will play in the SEC Championship game if it beats Ole Miss and Alabama loses to Auburn. Ohio State will play in the Big Ten Football Championship if it beats Indiana this Saturday.
Beyond winning out, here are other factors that the committee will use to evaluate the Buckeyes against the other teams.
Eye Test
The Buckeyes' win over the Golden Gophers was a little too close for comfort, mainly because of two turnovers. No team is perfect, so punishing the Buckeyes for a few mistakes is hardly warranted. But protecting the ball and playing better against the run is critical if they want to pass the committee’s eye test.
The expectation is Ohio State should not be tested by Indiana or Michigan the next two weeks. Anything less than comfortable wins will damage their chances of winning style points.
Bowl Eligible Non-Conference Opponents
Few would argue that Ohio State’s non-conference schedule was challenging, but it was certainly better than TCU’s, Mississippi State’s and Baylor’s schedule.
Virginia Tech and Navy can both finish 7-5 and Cincinnati can finish 9-3. If this happens, the Buckeyes will have played three bowl-eligible teams. They also avoided playing any FCS teams and that needs to be factored into the comparison.
The Horned Frogs' non-conference schedule will include one bowl-eligible team, Minnesota. The Buckeyes also beat the Golden Gophers on the road in miserable conditions, so at best this is a split. Advantage Ohio State.
Baylor’s non-conference schedule will include one bowl-eligible team if Buffalo wins its final two games. Advantage goes to Ohio State.
Mississippi State’s non-conference schedule might include two bowl eligible teams if UAB wins another game. South Alabama is already eligible. Advantage, again, Ohio State.
Analysis
The one-loss teams all have a black eye. The Buckeyes' loss to the Hokies, while not good, should no longer be an anchor holding back the perception of this team.
If this loss continues to be an issue for the committee, then it should also diminish Mississippi’s State’s artificially enhanced strength of schedule that was produced by racking up early wins against vastly over-rated teams like Texas A&M and LSU.
Regardless, the perception of the SEC West's dominance has been exposed over the last few weeks. That alone should kill the idea that two teams from the SEC deserve to be in the playoff. At this point, it would be shocking and reprehensible if the committee selected Alabama and Mississippi State.
I would also contend that TCU and Baylor allowing 61 and 58 points in a game against each other hardly reflects the qualities of championship-caliber teams. If Florida State gets penalized for starting slow, Baylor should too. TCU should also be penalized for ending this game badly
The lack of a championship game will hurt the Big 12 champion. Mississippi State's chances will be diminished should it fail to play in the SEC Championship. The Big Ten Football Championship will give the committee one last chance to assess the Buckeyes against a highly ranked opponent. If Ohio State redeems itself and wins the championship this season, it has the strongest case for making the playoff.
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