COLUMBUS, Ohio — Win and you're in?
When it comes to Ohio State's chances of making the first-ever College Football Playoff, it may be that simple.
For the third consecutive week, the Buckeyes moved up in the selection committee's poll on Tuesday, jumping from No. 8 to No. 6 following their 31-24 win over No. 25 Minnesota last weekend. Three weeks ago, Ohio State found itself 16th and an apparent long shot in the committee's initial poll before jumping to the edge of the all-important top four.
And while on the surface it may appear as though the Buckeyes still need help to earn a coveted top-four spot and subsequent chance at the national championship, that might not necessarily be the case.
Because of the teams who don't appear to control their own fates, Ohio State has the best chance to make a final definitive statement. With their road wins over Michigan State and the Golden Gophers enhancing their resume in the past two weeks, the Buckeyes will have a chance to add to it in the Big Ten Championship Game should No. 16 Wisconsin wind up representing the conference's West division.
That's more than at least two of the teams currently ranked ahead of them can say.
Assuming each team ranked in the top seven wins out through the remainder of its schedule, that would likely guarantee No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State spots in the top three in some order. That would leave No. 4 Mississippi State, No. 5 TCU, Ohio State and No. 7 Baylor vying for the fourth and final spot, with the Buckeyes possibly possessing the inside track.
It may not seem that way now with both the Bulldogs and Horned Frogs ranked ahead of OSU. But Mississippi State currently trails Alabama in the SEC West and thus would be left out of the SEC Championship Game. And the Big 12 doesn't have a league title game for TCU to play in.
Moreover, TCU only has 6-5 Texas and 2-6 Iowa State remaining on its slate, hardly opportunities to make a final pitch to the playoff committee.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are currently on track to represent the East division in the Big Ten Championship Game, with only 3-7 Indiana and 5-5 Michigan standing in their way. Should Wisconsin win out—the Badgers have 7-3 Iowa and 7-3 Minnesota left on their schedule—it could very well find itself in or near the committee's top 10, giving the Buckeyes another opportunity to pick up an all-important quality win.
"Ohio State has had two impressive road wins in the Big Ten," committee chair and Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long said on ESPN's Tuesday night rankings reveal. "Those were statements that they made on the road in the Big Ten against ranked teams. That made a very positive statement about Ohio State and allowed them to move to the level that they did."
One would imagine that adding another such victory, albeit at a neutral site, would only increase the Buckeyes' standing with the committee, possibly placing them in the top four without any outside help.
Mississippi State does make for a potentially formidable foe given that its lone loss came to the current No. 1 team in the country and it still has No. 8 Ole Miss remaining on its schedule. But the CFP's website lists conference championships as its top criteria for differentiating comparable teams, and the Bulldogs won't even own a division title in the event that Alabama wins out.
As for No. 7 Baylor—who Ohio State jumped this week while the Bears were on a bye—like TCU, it doesn't have a conference championship game to potentially make a final statement in. But Baylor does have a Dec. 6 date with No. 12 Kansas State left on its slate, which could give the Bears one last quality win on a resume that already includes a victory over TCU.
It's unlikely that would be enough for Baylor to jump back over Ohio State, but in this first year of the playoff, everything is unprecedented. There's simply no guaranteeing that a Big Ten championship would be enough for the Buckeyes solidify a top-four spot, but the more this season plays out, the more likely it seems.
That is perhaps why Urban Meyer declined comment when asked on Monday whether his team belonged in the playoff. Ohio State may not control its own destiny—at least not to its knowledge—but the Buckeyes are trending upward with one last potential statement left to be made.
"That's not even going to be addressed," Meyer insisted. "We wake up every day to compete for championships in November. It's at the doorstep now."
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State Lead Writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
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