They needed a minor miracle to do it, but the Michigan State Spartans ran their recent road record to 15-3 outright and 13-5 against the spread with that crazy win/cover at Michigan a few weeks ago. The undefeated Spartans shoot to stay that way when they visit Lincoln to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Spartans opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.0-26.6 Spartans
Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread
MSU is 8-0 headed for its showdown with Ohio State later this month after holding off Indiana two weeks ago 52-26. The Spartans then had last week off.
Michigan State only led the pesky Hoosiers 31-26 well into the fourth quarter, then scored three touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game to secure the victory and the unlikely cover as a two-touchdown favorite. On the day, the Spartans outgained Indiana 540-389, as quarterback Connor Cook threw for 398 yards and four scores without a pick. They won time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin.
Three weeks ago, MSU got lucky to beat the Wolverines 27-23 on that fumble return for a score on the last play of the game, but the Spartans outgained Michigan that day by 156 yards and were going to cover anyway as seven-point road dogs.
Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers can cover the spread
Big Red is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in its first season under new head coach Mike Riley, suffering perhaps from a case of the curse of Bo Pelini. Nebraska just lost at Purdue last week 55-45, outgaining the Boilermakers on the day but turning the ball over five times. And the 10-point deficit was the largest of the Huskers' six losses this season; the first five came by a total of 13 points.
On the season, Nebraska has outrushed six of nine opponents and outgained its last three foes.
The Huskers lost to BYU on a Hail Mary at the buzzer, in overtime at Miami, on a touchdown with 10 seconds left against Illinois and on a field goal with five seconds left against Wisconsin. They also had a failed two-point conversion that would have forced overtime against Northwestern. Realistically, Nebraska is only about a half-dozen plays from being 6-3 or even 7-2.
Smart pick
Michigan State is living a bit of a charmed life, winning several close games this season, while the Huskers seem snakebit. Also, the Spartans have outgained each of their last four opponents by at least 100 yards. Take MSU here, playing on the road, where the spread is more manageable.
Betting trends
Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after a win.
Nebraska is 7-0 SU in its last seven games after consecutive losses.
Michigan State is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against Nebraska.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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