Ohio State owns nine straight wins in the “rivalry” with Minnesota, but the Gophers are 3-2 against the spread over the last five meetings and gave the eventual national champions a good battle last season. The Buckeyes shoot for a 9-0 start when they host Minnesota at the Horseshoe Saturday night.
Point spread: Buckeyes opened as 23-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.0-20.6 Buckeyes
Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers can cover the spread
The Gophers showed well in their first game after losing head coach Jerry Kill to retirement last week, coming within about a foot of upsetting Michigan, losing 29-26. Trailing by a field goal late, Minnesota drove to the Wolverines' 1-yard line, but poor clock management and an unimaginative call on the last play of the game resulted in disappointment.
On the day, Minnesota outgained Michigan 461-296 and covered as a 10-point home dog.
Two weeks ago the Gophers lost to Nebraska 48-25, but that game was closer than the score might indicate. And just before that Minnesota beat Purdue 41-13. If the Gophers could generate a run game this week and avoid turning the ball over, they could keep this one close.
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread
OSU is 8-0 on the season and still favored to repeat as national champions following a 49-7 victory at Rutgers two weeks ago. The Buckeyes then had last week off.
Ohio State only led the Scarlet Knights 7-0 well into the second quarter and 21-0 at the half, then scored four more unanswered touchdowns and held Rutgers off the board until just 13 seconds remained in the game. On the night, the Buckeyes outgained the Knights 528-293 and covered as 23-point favorites. But then again, it was Rutgers.
Three weeks ago Ohio State beat Penn State 38-10, covering 17 points. So after failing to cover five games in a row the Buckeyes have covered their last two times out.
Smart pick
The winner of this game is probably not in doubt; Minnesota just doesn't have enough to pull off the upset here. But the Gophers have been a good play as dogs recently, going 2-1 ATS this season when getting points and 11-4 ATS over the last two-plus seasons. Ohio State, meanwhile, is only 3-5 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS at home, dealing with inflated point spreads. The smart money here resides with Minnesota, plus the points.
Betting trends
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after a loss.
Ohio State is 29-0 SU in its last 29 games after consecutive ATS wins.
Ohio State is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games in November.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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