Michigan knocked off Penn State last season, but before that, the Nittany Lions had beaten the Wolverines four times in a row, going 4-0 against the spread. Michigan will shoot for a second straight victory in this series and try to stay alive in the Big 10 East when it visits Happy Valley on Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Wolverines opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.3-25.3 Wolverines
Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread
Since losing that game to Michigan State in excruciating fashion a month ago, the Wolverines have won three straight, including a thrilling 48-41 overtime decision at Indiana last week. Michigan led by two scores early, trailed by a touchdown late and then forced overtime on a five-yard Jake Rudock touchdown pass—one of six on the day for the transfer quarterback—with two seconds left.
Michigan then scored twice on just three plays in the extra periods and made a game-winning stop on a Hoosiers fourth down at the Michigan 2-yard line. On the day, Michigan racked up 581 yards of offense, as Rudock threw for 440 on 33 completions in 46 attempts.
For the season, the Wolverines are averaging 33 points per game. Their defense ranks second in the country overall and sixth in scoring, allowing just 15 points per game.
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread
The Lions won back-to-back games over Maryland and Illinois, putting up 70 points combined, but lost a tough one two weeks ago at Northwestern 23-21. Penn State then had last week off.
The Lions trailed the Wildcats 20-7 at the half, thanks in part to a 96-yard Northwestern kickoff return for a score. They rallied to take a 21-20 lead but lost the game on a field goal with 10 seconds remaining.
Three weeks ago, Penn State bombed Illinois 39-0, outgaining the Illini by well over 200 yards; just before that, the Lions nipped Maryland 31-30, forcing five Terps turnovers.
Penn State remains iffy on offense, but its defense ranks 13th in the country both overall and in scoring, allowing just 18 points per game.
Smart pick
Michigan owns edges on offense, in the running game, on defense and against the run. And Penn State has been outrushed and outgained in three of its last four games by some large numbers. The wise choice here is with the Wolverines.
Betting trends
- Michigan is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games on the road against Penn State.
- The total has gone under in seven of Penn State's last 10 games.
- Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last nine games.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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