Iowa owns seven victories in its last nine meetings with Purdue, and is 3-1 against the spread over the last four. The undefeated Hawkeyes shoot to stay that way and clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game when they host the Boilers Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium.
Point spread: Hawkeyes opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.0-13.8 Hawkeyes
Why the Purdue Boilermakers can cover the spread
Purdue only owns one victory over its last eight games, but is 3-1 ATS over its last four after falling at a ranked Northwestern last week 21-14 but covering as a two-touchdown underdog. The Boilers fell behind 7-0 on the first possession of the game but promptly responded with a 68-yard David Blough-to-Domonique Young scoring strike to tie the game at 7-7.
They trailed 14-7 at the half but then re-tied the game on a short Markell Jones touchdown run and had a chance to take a lead shortly thereafter but missed a 43-yard field-goal attempt. Purdue then gave up the game-winning touchdown with four minutes to go but couldn't respond for a second time.
On the day the Boilers only got outgained 382-360 and won the turnover battle 3-1.
Earlier this year, Purdue gave Michigan State a tough game up in East Lansing, losing 24-21 but covering easily at 23 points. And last month, it lost at Wisconsin 24-7 but covered at 21 points. So the Boilers are 3-0 ATS on the Big Ten road this season.
Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread
Iowa remained perfect and part of the College Football Playoff conversation with a 40-35 victory over Minnesota last week. The Hawkeyes took a 7-0 lead on their first possession of the game and never trailed, eventually leading by double digits on three different occasions. Iowa then coughed up the cover as an eight-point favorite when it allowed the Gophers to score a touchdown with just over a minute to go.
On the night, the Hawkeyes outrushed Minnesota 272-133, as running back LeShun Daniels popped off for 195 and three scores, including a game-clinching 51-yard touchdown bolt with just over two minutes left.
For the season, Iowa is averaging 212 yards per game on the ground while allowing just 105. And outrushing opponents by 100-plus yards is often a good way to win games and cover spreads.
Smart pick
Iowa has outgained and outrushed every opponent this season except one; meanwhile, Purdue has been outgained each of its last eight games, six times by at least 100 yards, three times by at least 200 yards. Also, the Hawkeyes are playing for big stakes. So while the spread on this game might be slightly inflated, Iowa still seems the smart betting choice.
Betting trends
Purdue is 1-5 straight up in its last six games on the road against Iowa.
Iowa is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games in November.
Purdue is 3-0 ATS in its last three games after a loss.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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